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12/26/07 Home prices post record decline - Well here's an index of 10 cities showing a 6.7% drop from Oct 06 to 07. That's about what I see in our area. After the first of the year I'll get back on track with this website and post more frequent articles and get the data updated. Happy Holidays! (from cnn.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/07/07) Bush saves the day! Mortgage Crisis over! Not! Read around the web and you'll find all kinds of opinions on the governments latest plan to save the day. The Republicans seem to think this is a bail out of bad business practices and we should just let the meltdown occur and those that took the risks should have to take their lumps. The Dems see the sky is falling and we should reward all the people and lenders that took risks and bail them out. As usual, reality sits somewhere in the middle. What the Bush plan does in general is get lenders to voluntarily freeze certain loans that were set to have their interest rates jump next year. There's almost 2 million loans out their sitting in that boat! Now many could cry that "Hey I worked hard and maintained my good credit so I could get a fixed rate and now you're going to hand a parachute to the people that didn't do all that and took a risk?" Well sort of....the devil is in the details that are still unfolding. The plan does NOTHING about the close to 2 million homes in foreclosure now!

Here's the whole thing from my point of view. This sucker is no longer just between high risk lenders and high risk borrowers. The amount of foreclosures are already affecting EVERYONE with falling property values and a glut of homes on the market. Good guy John Q. Public who did everything right, worked hard and smart for 30 years, maintained good credit etc is now sitting on a home they want to sell to fund their retirement and they can't sell it because of the glut of homes on the market and falling values. I myself have several customers in that boat with homes to sell in areas like NJ or CT. I liken this to the bail out of Chrysler years back. I hated it at the time! They make crappy cars so let them go out of business was my opinion. But others felt that the hit on the economy would be too great and for the common good the government needed to act. And it worked. They still make crappy cars but that's another subject:)

So....some estimates are that with the proposed rules for this plan (no late payments-uh duh aren't those the ones that really need this help???-, rate increase planned will raise monthly payment >10% and others) that this program will MAYBE bail out 150,000 borrowers. If that's the case and we leave another 1.7 mil to go into foreclosure well then it sounds like the feds plan will be right on par with the one they have in Mass (see below)i.e useless. Time will tell. More tomorrow.

(11/28/07)Government loan programs for the mortgage crisis aren't working! Surprised? - Well you shouldn't be if you read this blog. I predicted these things were going to be a waste of time and there were news articles all over last week about what a "flub" these programs are. One classic example is down in Mass with Governor "Mr. Rogers" program where they set aside over $200 Mil to help people refi. Guess what? They've helped 9 people so far! That's NINE. No decimal point error. Other states and the federal program thru FHA are equally ineffective. Why? Because a home still has to appraise and the VAST majority of people in trouble bought within the last 2 years and their value has fallen. Also, if they are behind on their mortgage payments their credit has taken a whack and they can't qualify. Until the government clowns address these issues they might as well go spend that money on heating oil for those in need or something. Or hire me as one of those overpaid consultants. Ya that's the ticket. If you are in Governor Mr. Rogers admin tell him if he invests just 1% of the $200 mil in me I will give him a program that will work and get him re-elected! This stuff just drives me crazy!

(11/26/07)Does rate cut mean lower mortgages? - This scenario happens all the time. The FED announces its cutting rates. Buyers call their lender expecting home interest rates will be cut also. Not! This article gives a half butt explanation for this but here's the best way I can explain it. Its different money. The lending rate that the FED cuts is not where mortgage money comes from. That simple. Its like the price of beef getting cut and you expecting McDonald's to reduce the price of your morning coffee! (from boston.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(11/26/07)Default threat ignites scams - Of course there has to be scammers and crooks moving in on the mortgage foreclosure market. The basic deal is they offer someone heading to foreclosure an apparent parachute. You sell the home to them for $1, they promise to send you a ton of money (say $100K) and you get to stay in the home as a tenant for a year at no charge. Sounds good? Well, they then float themselves an equity loan on it, take the money and run and it gets foreclosed, the original owner gets nothing except evicted by the new lender. If its too good to be true........ (from boston.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(11/20/07)Crime scene: foreclosure - Here's a sad sign of the times. Properties that have been foreclosed on are being stripped of their valuable metals. Aluminum siding, metal gutters and even interior plumbing are being stolen from these properties and sold at junk yards due to the high price of metals. Kind of a sad commentary on our times. Reminds me of the total dump that New York city was during the 80's where there would be stripped cars all over the place. For those not old enough to remember there was a time when if your car broke down on one of the city highways losers would come along and strip it clean. Now that's happening in our cities. This problem has even been occurring in Manchester with losers breaking into foreclosed homes and stealing all the copper piping. I hate regulations but this has got to be controlled at the junk yards somehow. Make people that want to sell present a valid ID that has to be copied and put in a file? Something to deter these losers and give the cops a path to chase stuff? (from cnn.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(11/10/07) Latest news and updates! Updated the 13 month charts and last weeks sales in the "Sales Data" section. Overall its been weird. For all counties except Hillsboro prices recovered or remained flat after last months big drop. In general sales volume has dropped also. Hillsboro county got spanked around! The average sales price dropped 10% the last two months and sales volume dropped almost 50%! What's up with that? I don't see any real reasons for it except the abundance of listings. Hillsboro county has not lost a ton of jobs etc. bears watching but bottom line is its a GREAT time to buy folks!

(11/1/07) Subprime: Bankruptcy bill faces road blocks - I don't know about this one. Here congress is basically trying to give judges the authority to change a loan's terms in bankruptcy and foreclosure cases. On one side I think - "hey, you entered into a contract to repay a loan and why do you get to have it re-written in your favor?". On the other hand if it was one of these subprime lenders that gambled that the market would keep going up so they could re-fi their buyers out of a loan they both new they could not re-pay I start to think - "let them take their lumps." Not sure about this. I just get very very worried when congress starts messing with business and in a case like this when they give judges the power to change contracts signed between two parties? Contracts that very clearly state what each parties obligations are? I thought the judiciary was supposed to interpret our laws? There's no question or dispute over the contract or our laws in these cases. This sounds more like creating advocate judges??? Hmmmm (from cnn.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(10/21/07) Finally something that's not dumb! -Anyone see Andy Rooney on 60 Minutes this past Sunday evening? He was going thru all the books that get sent to him with stupid titles and one was called "1001 Ways to Sell Your House" (or something like that)- Andy gave his curious grin, raised his voluminous eyebrows and said "If you want to sell your house you don't need 1001 tips, just lower the price!" Well said.

(10/14/07)Agent robbed and bound! - Well this is not good. I'm hearing more and more of these stories from around the country. Thankfully not here in NH yet but its going to happen. Sadly. Well, I'm posting this as a "heads up" to buyers that you may find an agent insist that you meet him/her in their office first and that you allow them to take a photo copy of your drivers license. This is one of the things we are being advised to do to try to protect ourselves. The logic is that if someone will not take the time to do this it may be a red flag. If you have an agent ask you to do this please help him/her out and it should be a one time thing. After that you can meet at the properties. If an agent refuses to show you a property without first meeting you in their office understand its not their fault. I've got to tell you there are parts of Nashua and Manchester now that I do not feel comfortable going to. Definitely not after dark. Sad but true. (from wctv.tv) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(10/10/07) Road sign! -While driving thru New Ipswich (which I think is one of the best kept secrets in real estate - as in great country town on the Mass border with lots of homes to pick from and great prices!) I saw this sign and it made me laugh so much I had to photograph it and share it with my friends and readers. The world needs more people with a sense of humor like this!

(10/8/07)Subprime: Bailout backlash! - Did you enjoy the home inspection nightmares below? I can't tell you how much I laughed at the "Chew can" junction box! Too funny! But now to make your mood more serious try this one from Money.cnn.com. I keep telling myself to stop posting CNN articles since they have dorks like Wolfy and that new total jerk that replaced Paula Zahn (when we had our last mine collapse he actually asked someone in an interview - "how come you can't just call them on their cell phone" while referring to the trapped miners?????! Arg!) but, they still keep coming up with pretty good articles on their web site so I link to them. This one mirrors what I have said here about whether we should really bail out good people that took bad risks and are now upside down on their loans because the market did not go the way they had speculated? Should those that did not take the risk have their tax dollars used to bail out those that did? Tough question. (from money.cnn.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(10/4/07)Home Inspection Nightmares!! - Maybe you have to be in the business to laugh at these but I thought this link was a riot! I particularly liked the redneck junction box:) Scary but funny but still a good reason to hire a good home inspector! Click "skip this ad" on the opening page. Then click "NEXT" for all 16 pics:) If you don't "feel home inspectors pain" and sympathize with them you are not human. An important job that I would not want:) (from thisoldhouse.com/) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(10/1/07)Dow hits record! - Well this is good news. As long as the economy stays strong we'll get out of this housing problem ok. I think its time for Congress to Shaddup about the "mortgage crisis" since they have shown they can't do anything helpful. Its time for them to focus on some scandal or such and leave it to the market to fix housing. Btw, I'll be posting some interesting data on Sept. sales in a few days. (from money.cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(9/27/07) Congress is doing all the WRONG things! Surprised?? I predicted it months ago and now they are doing it! Lets start with last weeks supposed big news that FHA was now going to insure refi's. OK on the surface it sounds good. Should make lenders more willing to let people that need to refi right? Well here's the rub - The VAST majority of people in danger of foreclosure are those that bought in the last 2 years with 100% financing. I do a lot of pre-foreclosure work (advising lenders of the value of the properties they may be foreclosing on) and EVERYONE of them were sold in the last few years and had 100% finance type loans. The problem these people face is that their property values have dropped since they bought it and even if they had a lender willing to do a 100% loan insured by FHA the property WILL NOT appraise, thus they cannot do the loan. I've talked to lending wholesalers and mortgage brokers and they all seem to be scratching their heads as to whether they are even going to offer this as a product. Message to congress..........Its NOT going to help!
OK, then today in the Boston Globe there's a story that the Ways and Means committee is set to put a NEW TAX on second home sales and use that money to bail out foreclosures? Can you believe this stuff? Robin Hood rides again. Now I don't want to sound insensitive but why should our government confiscate money from those that have made smart decisions and are able to afford a second home and give it to those that perhaps made bad decisions? Again, I know and understand the heart ache of losing your home. I have clients and friends going thru it. I know there are people with foreclosure problems due to lost jobs or health issues. But, the vast majority are good people making bad decisions by buying homes they could not afford. I just don't think the government creating new taxes ever fixed anything and its certainly not going to fix this. And of course there's this thought.....Hmmm lets see .... one of the worst housing crunches on record so lets create a new tax on a portion of it! Ya that should fix it. Duh.

(9/17/07) Mortgage rates tumble- Yes they are! Nice news for buyers! Get off that fence! (from money.cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

9/14/07Your credit card limits may be going down and why that's bad for your credit score! Hmmm, first news reports rumoring of a meltdown next in the consumer credit business. Now it seems like credit card companies, long known for giving people limits of $30K or $40K are cutting those limits drastically. Sometimes by 90%! Lets say you only have a small balance and think "I don't care because I never use that much anyway", right? Well, logic would tell you that having a $2K balance but a $40K limit SHOULD make you look riskier than someone having a $2K balance and a $4K limit? WRONG! You're using logic and applying it to FICO scores (see below)! Silly you:) I've heard from numerous sources that your ratio of debt to your credit limit is a big part of your credit score so in the scenario above you could actually have no real change in your financial situation except a limit on how much more you can go into debt and that could reduce your credit score significantly. Hmmmm I'm re-thinking yesterday's article and maybe FICO does deserve more blame simply because they have a system that defies logic. Still, I'll blame the dumb-ars corporate lenders for trusting something as stupid as FICO.

(9/13/07)FICO Credit scores also at fault? - What is FICO? Short for Fair Issac Corp (what a name eh?). This is the mysterious company that handles the mysterious system for calculating your credit score. If you talk with a mortgage broker you will hear him/her refer to your FICO score. This is a thing I ranted about months back (scroll down for a great read:) where they keep the method of calculating your score secret, something I compare to bad marriage. Yes I hate what you do but I'm not going to tell you what it is or how to make me happy. That's my opinion of FICO. So....at first I was kind of happy to see an article trying to pin "a little" of the blame on the mortgage crisis we have now (and I'm no longer going to call it the "Sub-prime" mortgage crisis-more on that later). But as I read the article and thought about it trying to blame FICO for any part of this mortgage crisis would be as dumb as trying to blame the glue manufacturer because some dumb-ars engineer and a bunch more dumb-ars government people thought you could use glue to hold up several ton pieces of cement! To use a software analogy- FICO is working as designed. If we give them the benefit of the doubt about their secret calculations what more are they than a barometer of how well you have handled making payments in the past. And as they say in the stock world....past performance etc etc. Sure part of the FICO scheme is supposed to look for trends (like using one credit card to pay for another) that would "predict" future credit worthiness. Come on...did anyone in corporate America actually believe that crap? Well, yes, kind of because corporate culture encourages people to have "systems and metrics" and as long as it looks good and you use words like "Paradigm" people actually start believing their own corporate BS and it was lenders that kept lowering the bar for who they would lend to using FICO scores! The reason we are in this mess are two fold... 1) As I've said lending these loans with teaser rates or basic adjustable loans that do not have any evidence short of a Powerball win that the buyers income would increase enough to cover the loan. 2) The market went to hell in a hand basket and the old ponzy scheme of "we'll just refinance you" when that rate is goes up doesn't work in a normal market when things aren't going up 10% a year! So....as much as I laugh at FICO its not their fault. But...read on and see what you think. (from forbes.com - you need to be a member to read this but just set up a free account with them and if you haven't yet set yourself up a free yahoo email account first to use for sites like this so you don't get even more spam in your main account) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(9/4/07Some encouraging signs - Not raising the victory flag and I'll report more this week but some of the numbers from August are encouraging. The listed to sold ratio was around 2:1 which is getting back to reality. Inventory has been reduced a bit with listings expiring and withdrawing along with sales. The sugar coaters at the National Association of Realtors had an article in the membership magazine predicting a turnaround 4Q this year which I think is total rubbish for our area but it did cite some important good news with job creation being up and interest rates being down. Of course GW talked about his plan to help with foreclosures and the FED gave a strong spank on the butt to lenders today asking them to "lighten up" on foreclosures so that's good. I'll dive into this more this week.

(9/4/07)Tax deduction for 3000 sq ft plus homes going poof?- OK back at it here after helping my wife thru her recent surgery and a well earned and relaxing weekend for both of us! Get this one! A BONEHEAD, Rep. John Dingell (D-MI), (can we not help but laugh at his name?:) is going to introduce a bill that would ban the mortgage interest deduction for homes over 3000 sq ft! Am I the only one that is driven nuts by this type of thinking? I know, I know its all about saving the planet and I'm evil for driving a Hummer but I sure do hope this bill is dead on arrival because I don't think I want the government this deep into my life. Do you? And someone named Dingle making decisions for us? When you try to use numbers like this you really run out of runway real quick. Say some local real estate guy drives a Hummer but in reality does very little driving with it and uses say 20 gallons a week in gas. Some other guy drives a much for fuel efficient car but he drives to Boston every day and uses 50 gallons a week. Who's more evil? Anyway, I'm predicting this bill will be DOA but still keep an eye out for Dingles trying to run your life! (from realtytimes.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(8/27/07)Big changes coming in the commercial sector- This is getting out of my area of expertise (I mainly focus on residential real estate) but when you smell something bad you don't have to be a chemist to know its not coming from a rose bush! I'll get more details after I pick the brains of some CPA's and Commercial Real Estate agents but here's the short version. Coming sometime soon they are going to change an accounting practice where companies now have to list long term leases as long term debt. If you ever wondered why a big company or retail operation would want to lease instead of buy space is because of this accounting practice. Per bean counters - A lease is good, debt looks bad. It has always been more advantageous for them to have a lease instead of a loan (i.e debt) on a property for accounting/tax purposes. With that changing several things may take place- First, the commercial real estate sector may change course. Will it be more financially practical for a company to own a property instead of leasing it? How will that affect a company that owns malls for instance? As I said this is out of my range or expertise but I'll be picking the brains of those I know and reporting back. Second, the other potential impact is one I read recently where some companies are going to take a BIG hit on their stock values because of this accounting change. Some examples had companies with stocks valued at at $20+ per share worth $7 per share after the bean counters are thru! Oh goodie our 401K's have not been thru enough already the past few years! So....prediction is this will be a big story in the coming months. I hope someone at the Fed is steering this ship and this doesn't crash it into the problems we already have. If you invest start paying attention. If you have a 401K start paying attention. I'm not going to get into giving financial advice here but pay attention! I'll post again on the real estate part of this.

(8/23/07) Mortgage meltdown contagion- You know what? I'm getting tired of hearing all this "mortgage market" imploding stuff. Sure its real, sure it sucks but like a gasping rat I just wish Countrywide would either suck it up and shut up or go belly up so the market can take its lumps and move forward. This stuff is soooo prevalent in the press that unless I find something that's significant and not the same old stuff over and over I'm not linking to it anymore. Its boring. Tomorrow or the next day (been slow on updates here as I'm afk caring for my wife who is recovering from surgery fyi) I'll crunch the numbers on July 06/07 data and post last weeks sales data also. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(8/14/07) "The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!" - Chicken Little - OK enough time has passed since the tragic bridge collapse and resulting loss of life in Minneapolis, Minnesota for me to comment and hopefully not seem insensitive. The reaction from our beloved politicians, on both sides of the aisle, was just plain nuts! Our "crumbling infrastructure" they all chanted in unison, seeing a new way into our pockets. "How are we going to PAY for all of this?" they asked all the clowns running for President.
Well here's some facts! If one of these chumps running for Prez did not follow along like a trained jackass I'd post an endorsement for him/her right on this blog. OK first, as of October 2004 there are 594,470 highway bridges in the United States. This includes all bridges of 20 foot or greater length that carry roadways open to the public. It does not include railroad bridges. As far as I have been able to find the last bridge collapse in this country, excluding ones hit by trucks, earthquakes and boats, happened in 1967. That's basically one in 600,000 bridges will collapse every 40 years! Now I'm on board with a goal of ZERO collapses but I've got to tell you I'd be happy if someone could make me a cell phone that had this type of reliability! One bridge collapsing is not a sign that the world is coming to and end and that we need to open up our pocket books to these predators.
And....even if we have a real problem looming here giving more of our money to the government is not the solution. Never is. Consider this: the amount spent per mile on highways in Maine is about $4000/mile. In Massachusetts its over $60K/mile! And you may say "Ya but Maine does not have the population Massachusetts has" but consider this! New Jersey spends about $14K/mile on its roads! If money was the solution Massachusetts would have the most beautiful roads and bridges in the country. And we know that's not the case. So....don't let them take our tax dollars to blow on roads and other such nonsense like that pork barrel bridge to nowhere congress wanted to build. I for one do not even believe we have a infrastructure problem over all. We have an ongoing maintenance and obsolescence issue that SMART people need to be managing. Its not something we throw money at.
And let me leave you with this final figure: the loss of life in Minneapolis is tragic. Any loss is. Using 2005 data, since that bridge collapse we've lost 672 people as the result of drunk drivers! Where's the outrage or at least an attempt to pick our pockets to fix that problem? Probably because most of our politicians are serial drunk drivers themselves! Ok rant over. (Oh and the real estate "tie in" is that we use roads to go to our homes and the more tax money they take from us the slower the economy gets and the less good folks like you have to spend on houses:)

(8/13/07) Mortgage meltdown contagion- OK OK you've heard all the news this past week. Blaming the Dow drop on the mortgage markets. Sure and if there was a mud island forming off of Trinidad they'll blame it on that next! But wait...the article ends with this quote - "Consumers can continue to stay resilient in the face of lower stock and home prices," he said. "Not only is the economy strong enough to survive the crisis, it's strong enough to quiet it." (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(8/7/07) Is it an auction or not? You may come across a listing in our MLS that looks like its ridiculously cheap and under priced but when you read the details you find out the cheap price is only a starting price for an auction to be held at a certain date. Seen that yet? Most buyers that see it feel "duped" when they find out its not a real price but an auction. I feel the same and wish it was not allowed in our MLS. I and others believe it is a violation of our Realtor Code of Ethics with regards to truth in advertising. Others say it is not because the auction is explained in the remarks. The issue gets more complicated because the "MLS" has to watch out for fair trade laws and not have rules that restrict competition. Nothing is ever simple and in real estate that is more true than ever with many government agencies and laws coming into play. So...when you see something like this don't immediately start blaming the bad, nasty Realtors. But, the problem I have with this is that ALL buyers I have talked to about this practice feel that its a bait and switch as most buyers searching thru this or other sites use price as their first decision on whether to click thru or not and it isn't until they do that and read the remarks that they find out its an auction. The "low price" tricks them into clicking thru. I think a fair solution to this is to set up a separate "Auction" section in our MLS. That way it is clear up front to the public what they are looking at, no one feels surprised or tricked, those that want to market and sell homes this way can and life in the land of OZ can be good again:) Maybe I'll get off my duff and propose such a change.

(8/2/07) Pending Home Sales Rise in June- Uh huh? This non-news story has been all over the place. Another example of the press taking a sugar coated press release from the National Association of Realtors and pumping out mis-leading headlines! Using my source for finding these stories there were 121 news organizations that ran with this basic headline. Its like the press used to do before we went to war: each August there'd be no news to report as Congress was on vacation but they'd always do a story about the government is "Running out of money" because they had not yet voted on a new budget! Remember that? Same thing here. Here's the straight scoop- the number of homes that went under agreement nationwide went up 5% in June compared to the month before. Guess what? In the 10+ years I've been doing this June is ALWAYS a bigger month than May, as May is bigger than April, etc. Its called the peak selling season kiddies! The real news is buried in the details: June 07 compared to June 06 is down over 8%! That said, locally the listed to sold ratio was about 2.5:1 for June. That's the best its been in a long while and down from the very consistent 3:1 we've been seeing the last year or so. Perhaps some news that the buyers market may be turning a bit. Buyers sitting on the fence may want to get off and buy before they get hurt. (from townhall.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(7/27/07) Subprime loan alternatives- Your credit may be bruised and you can't qualify for conventional loan? With the changes in the sub-prime market its harder for someone like this to find a loan but its also spawning a resurgence in old tried and true loans like an FHA or a VA that kind of fell by the wayside over the last 5 years or so. And in NH if you are a first time buyer there's a great program that you can use thru your friendly mortgage broker called NH Housing that has easier qualifying terms and they give you money towards your purchase. This article talks about the FHA and VA options. If you'd like to chat about these give me a call anytime. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(7/19/07) Home ownership becomes reality for single mom- Here's a feel good story about a Realtor that went WAY out of her way to help a first time buyer. Next time someone starts telling you a nasty Realtor story stop them and say "Ya but...I read this story once about..... (from azdailysun.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(7/17/07) Best places to live - Money Magazine's yearly article is out and Hanover NH is number 2! See that and where your town or city ranks. Keep in mind that they put great emphasis on weather (making Hanover a surprise:), economics, diversity, and crime. With all the crime problems from Mass seeming to be moving up to our cities like Nashua and Manchester I wonder if they will ever wind up on the top end of the rankings again? Nashua was number one a couple of times over the last 10 years but now its not even in the top 100! Salem is our other town that placed in the top 100. Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(7/14/07) Barn Stars! - I'm seeing more and more of these and people keep asking me about them. A short description from Wikipedia.com says "A barnstar (or barn star) is a decorative piece, often in the shape of a five-pointed star but occasionally in a circular "wagon wheel" style, used to adorn a barn. These are originally and most commonly seen in German and German-American farming communities. Having no structural purpose, they were mainly used for their general aesthetic appeal and were even considered lucky, akin to a horseshoe mounted over a doorway". I've been seeing them on houses without a barn in sight! So, now you can tell your friends what this is all about:) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(7/10/07)New data posted- I posted last weeks sales as well as updated graphs for the past 13 month's sales. Click on the sales data button for details. All in all we're in the summer slump for real estate on top of the slow market. Showings are off as are phone activity from buyers in general. I've been starting to hear from investors looking to "bottom pick" some properties so that's always a good sign. Interest rates remain steady. Buyers sitting on the fence ought to make a move IMHO. For other data the listed to sold ratio is still around 3 to 1. There are more homes on the market now than anytime this year so we're not peeling away inventory yet. Its a good time to be a buyer:)

(7/5/07) Subprime loans get new standards - As you have been reading here over the past year my predictions on this subprime mess continue to fall into place. Here's an article about new guidelines lenders have set for themselves with the subprime market. The wording I really like is this one : "This guidance ... underscores that the Federal Reserve and other banking regulators expect lenders to make sure subprime borrowers not only can afford their monthly payments while the introductory rate is in effect but also after the interest rate resets," As I have said here repeatedly, its nuts to give someone a loan with a low payment or teaser rate for a few years that will rise substantially if there is no reasonable expectation that their income will increase enough to cover the new loan payment. Now here's the down side- these guidelines only affect banks, they will not affect lenders that use investors money or money from Wall Street, which is where the bulk of these subprime loans get funded. So....hopefully all lenders will look at and adopt these guidelines themselves. My guess is they will because if they don't they might find congress adopting them for them. And we all know what happens when Congress takes a good idea and runs with it......I gets screwed up! (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(6/30/07) Home Sales Hit Slowest Pace in 4 Years - No real "new" news here but some more stats and predictions. (from AP) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(6/26/07) Where the housing boom goes on - Well, the market hasn't crashed in all parts of the country. Check out these areas that are still booming. I wonder if it will last for them though. If you are selling and then buying locally I think you are in a good position because what you loose on the sale you'll recover and get possibly more when you buy. If you are selling in our area and moving to one of these I feel your pain and hope you negotiated a good relo package from your employer. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(6/22/07) Are you heading to foreclosure or behind on your house payments? - Don't get mad or frustrated and just let it happen! There may be a way out that is better than foreclosure. You have some options. If you are in a position where you know your home's value and it is not enough to pay off your existing mortgage you still have choices. First, if you are behind on your payments call your lender and ask what they can do. Usually, at a minimum, they may be willing to let you make interest only payments for a few months or more. If you have your house on the market even better as they will usually work with you. The thing to remember is that your lender DOES NOT want to foreclose on you. They loose money on almost everyone one. Its in their best interests to work with you. If you are in a position where you have to sell your house for less than you owe you have several options. One is called a "Short Sale" where you as a seller bring money to the closing to make up for the difference. Not pretty or fun to be a seller bringing money to a closing but this is the best scenario for your credit. Now, most sellers in this position do not have the extra cash so here's your best option if you are heading to foreclosure; Get your house on the market at a realistic and aggressive selling price! This price should have nothing to do with what you paid or owe on it- its what a skilled Realtor would tell you the market price is. Let your lender know you are trying to sell and they will usually forestall the foreclosure process a few months to give you some time. Remember, they DO NOT want your house. They want their money.
Now, the other option you have with your lender is called "forgiveness of debt". Lets say you owe $400K on your house loan and get an offer that will net you about $380K (Offer price minus commission, tax stamps and other seller's closing costs). You're about $20K short. Submit that offer to your lender saying that is the best offer you are going to get based upon the market and ask if they will accept those proceeds as a final settlement of the loan pay off. It may take days or weeks to get an answer but I'm seeing lenders "forgive" this amount of money as its a cheaper route for them to take compared to foreclosure. If you head down this path you need an agent that knows how to handle this with regards to how to market a home in this situation and how to correctly handle writing and signing the contracts. If I can be of any help to anyone, including a no cost, no obligation phone chat feel free to call my cell anytime at (603) 674-4675

(6/19/07) U.S. Mortgage Foreclosure Filings Rise 90% in May - Well that's not a good thing. However, keep that in mind that the past few years have seen record LOW foreclosures. If there were only 10 foreclosures in the area (and during the 2004-2005 time period there were not that many in the state when I checked one summer!) a jump to 20 would be a 100% jump but 20 would still be a small number. Its like those articles that say "Warning....eating (insert your favorite unhealthy food- I'll use Fried Clams:) will boost your chances of getting cancer by 300%! And that sounds scary right? What they may not be telling you is your chances of getting it were .001% and now its .003% after eating the bottom filter feeders - Yes a 300% jump but still........So, that said, foreclosure and pre-foreclosure activity is way up and as I've said before these are mostly people that bought or refinanced in the last few years that can't get out what they put in. Watch tomorrow for a short article on what to do if you are in that situation. (from bloomburg.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(6/15/07) Realty shows become hot properties on cable -You've probably seen them. In general they drive real estate agents crazy as they tend to make it look too easy:) But there are obviously fun for a lot of people. A few cautions though - remember that real estate law is different, sometimes VERY different, from state to state. What they say may not be applicable in your state. I have to admit I have not watched much of this genre (I don't consume a lot of TV in general) and after a 12 hour day of having fun wheeling and dealing for my clients I'm not even remotely interested in watching it on TV. But, what I have watched are shows that tend to make it look too easy, whether its flipping a house and getting rich or how to sell a house simply by staging it. And when I talk with customers and clients I sometimes have to help them hit the reset button on their investment brain to get them back to a New Hampshire reality and out of TV land. And that's fine, I like helping and educating people and watching them succeed. Oh, the other fun one I keep seeing are buyers, or usually a family member tagging along for a showing, turning into junior real estate agents and taking over the showing. They start doing the "and this is the kitchen......" routine. Make's my job a little harder as I have to follow along and correct mis-statements (Um excuse me those are Silestone counter tops not granite......Umm those are laminate floors not hardwood.......Ummm that's more correctly called a jet tub and this one is made by Whirlpool. Jaccuzi is a brand name...... Umm Just because your dad never pumped his septic tank does not mean that's a very good idea...... etc. But hey, bring your reality show friend along for a showing. I'll have fun letting them make me look good:) (from news-press.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(6/15/07) Mortgage rates: biggest spike in 4 years -Not what we want to hear is it? Any buyers sitting on the fence should make there move now before rates go up further. There's lots of properties to choose from and deals to be found! (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(6/13/07) Ouch my back! - Sorry about the lack of updates over the last week and a half. I've been down and out with back problems but I'm up and at it again! Watch for many updates this week. Short version of the market is that its still a great time to be a buyer! Lots of homes to choose from and low interest rates. Listed to sold rations running between 3:1 and 4:1. Overall, we had the usual Memorial day slowdown where showings and general activity slowed way down as people planned for their holiday weekend. Still waiting for it to pick up like it usually does. I think, as I have said in the past, that gas prices have whacked us once again. Whenever they get up over $3.00 a gallon many of our long commute buyers start thinking about that long commute. Stay tuned for more article links, stats etc this week.

(6/3/07) 7 landscaping tips -Everyone talks about how to stage the house yet we rarely hear about how to stage your yard! Here's a timely article. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(5/31/07) Wow, I could've had a prime mortgage- Here's an interesting article "speculating" that perhaps people that got sub prime loans (and their higher interest rates) actually qualified for prime loans at the cheaper rate but were pushed into the sub prime market because the mortgage broker could make more money from that type of a loan. I'm not sure about that....I'm sure its happened but I don't think its widespread. I'll talk to some brokers tomorrow to see if the claim they make more on the sub primes is true. Either way it points out something important....always use a lender that you can trust. Don't go to flybynightlender.com and pick someone out of the air! If you are in a sub prime and would actually qualify for a prime it might make sense for you to refi now before the rates go up further. If you need some recommendations for honest lenders that have done great jobs for past clients give me a call and I'd be glad to point you in the right direction. And stay tuned this for my next rant about why you should NOT use a local bank for a home loan! (Hint....can you say Lousy service and arrogant attitudes?) (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(5/26/07)Some thoughts- Lots of mixed news this week as you may have read and heard. I like mixed news because that can be a sign the market is changing. Still, I'm not reading to much into it yet. First, new housing sales were at a 14 year high. That was most likely due to builder's cutting prices to move their excess inventory. If we see May's numbers come in like that it will be a gooooooood sign. For the local existing home sales market its been mixed - we've had some good activity with showings though coming into the Memorial Day weekend its slowed as people plan to go away, etc. There have been some good days with the listed to sold ratio being around 2:1 and that is a key number for this amateur economist. Mortgage applications were up which is a good indication more buyers are coming along. I'm seeing and having contact with a lot of first time buyers, which is good for the market and good for them as its a good time to buy.

(5/23/07 Bernanke: Go slow on subprime regulation- Ah ha! Here's the Fed Chair saying the same thing I said 6 months ago on this stuff! Can some one just tell them to ask me first??:) (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(5/22/07 Retirement interrupted- Well this certainly applies to many of us:) (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(5/16/07 Mortgage apps in surprise dip- I've been hearing the same thing from local mortgage brokers the last few weeks. A bit of a surprise as this is typically the strongest time of year for real estate. I'm not even going to bother to link to an article you've probably seen all over the news this week about the NAR forecasting that the market will flatten out by years end. In fact, until they "get real" and stop sugar coating things I'm not going to link to any articles quoting NRA on market conditions. I'll just continue to give you the facts here.(from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(5/10/07) Calculating living space - Here's one that buyers, sellers and sometimes agents get mixed up with. Calculating how many square feet of living space are in a house should be done the same by all agents - that way buyers are comparing apples to apples. Most of the time I see it done correctly but sometimes its wrong, fudged or some other such stuff. First, some ground rules:
Basically we should be following the guidelines given to appraisers. The living space should be finished and it should have heat. So if you have a cape with the second floor unfinished, just studs, that should not be part of the square footage.
Lets start with a single story ranch home with an unfinished basement. The home has a foundation size of 24'x36'. The standard method for determining the living space is to take this exterior measurement and multiply the two dimensions. Thus 24x36=864 sq ft. So what you have is not an accurate number for how much usable space is in the house but a number that gives you the ability to compare two houses.
If the entire basement was finished and heated it would then be 864x2=1728 total finished space. Our MLS has 3 entries for this data- one is Total Sq Ft, One is above ground and the other below ground.
Now lets take that same foundation size and use it for a colonial with an unfinished basement. Since you have two floors of identical size it would again be 24x36=864 x 2= 1728 sq ft of living space above ground.
Capes get trickier. If it is not dormered or gabled you do not have the same size living area on the second floor because of the roof lines and knee walls. Its a judgment call on these but typically you take the foundation and consider the second floor will have only 60-75% of the floor space compared to the first floor. For the same foundation it would work this way - 24x36=864 sq ft first floor. For the second floor it would be 864 X.75=648 for a total sq ft of 1512.
Hopefully this helps someone. I've had buyers, usually engineers:), spend entire evenings with the listing sheet trying to calculate this by the room sizes.

(5/8/07) Home-price forecast: First ever decline - Here's story that's been all over the news today in print, radio and TV and it makes little sense to me! The National Association of Realtors say they are predicting the first decline in home prices since they began tracking data in 1968??? The way they read this on the news today is that it IS the first drop since 1968. How can that be? I know they're talking nationwide but I seem to remember the Carter years were not all that sweet and I vividly remember the boom of the late 80's and the crash and burn of the early to mid 90's. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think only the Northeast took it on the nose during that early 90's drop. And anyway I predicted this months ago! Could it be that its just the FIRST time that the NAR "predicted" a drop?? Meaning they've simply missed all the others??? What a weird story. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

5/5/07)Insanity in Brookline Mass! - I'm telling you these people are nuts! Have you heard this latest one? The Selectmen want to INCREASE their already outrageous automobile excise tax on vehicles they determine to be "gas guzzlers". Now on the surface that may seem like a good thing but think this thru with me. First, they say it is to "encourage" more eco friendly cars. Well how about this piece of radical thinking????? (If anyone remembers the comedian Sam Kinnison think of me screaming this next line in his style!) LOWER THE TAXES ON FUEL EFFICIENT CARS INSTEAD!!! I'm telling you fellow New Hampshireites we've got to worry about more of these type of thinkers coming into our state! They're scary! And lets see, what will happen to property values when people start telling their real estate agent not to look in Brookline because of dinosaur thinking like this? Hmm.... property values fall more than they have been and tax revenues goes down and their "tax increase" results in less money being collected so they have to raise taxes even more?? Is Michael Dukasis on the board of Selectmen there???? Punitive taxes have never worked and it amazes me that these people think this way and even more so that they get voted into office. How about this one.....manual shift transmissions get 10-15% better fuel mileage but we never hear about forcing people to drive standards or taxing people with automatic transmissions into extinction! Why not? None of these whacko's have the ability to walk and chew gum at the same time so how can we expect them to drive a car where you have to clutch and shift at the same time! But for all the Brookline Selectmen reading this (grin)...and all other towns in that state that forced me to become a Dukasis refuge and flee across the border to New Hampshire.....Please keep raising taxes so that you make our state look better and better. We just need to find a way to stop similar thinking whacko's at the border. Hmmm....how about a huge entrance tax for anyone that has a history of voting for these clowns? Ok a small rant but I had fun:)

5/1/07)The numbers still tell the story - You can listen to the pundits all day long but here's the straight scoop. Sales in NH for the first four months of 1999=3890,2000=3767, 2001=3600, 2002=3977, 2003=3772, 2004=4234, 2005=4055, 2006=3633, 2007=3298 . As you can see the "typical" number of homes sold through the 1999-2003 period was around 3700+/- and then we had the "irrational exuberance" of 2004+2005 and 2006 was more back to a "normal" market and 2007 is down. Look at the history, buyers, and think about getting off that fence.

(4/29/07)Sellers helping buyers with closing costs - I wanted to touch on this subject to help educate buyers and sellers about it so that it is not a confusing surprise if you run into it. Its a very useful method of helping buyers get into a house but every once in a while I run into a seller that does not understand the concept and becomes stubborn and really shoots themselves in the foot by not working with such a buyer.

For this example I'll use a property with an asking price of $300K. The buyer makes an offer of $295K with the "seller contributing up to $5K towards buyers closing costs, escrows and prepaids". That verbiage is typically what a lender requires to keep the exchange legal. Sellers are allowed to help buyers with some closing costs and that defines it. For the seller, this offer is effectively a $290K offer as the selling price on the settlement statement will say $295K but $5K of it will be credited to the buyer. I've run into some sellers that get hung up on thinking they are "Paying" $5K out of their pocket to the buyers and I think a lot of times its because this gets called a "sellers contribution". Here's the way I explain it- look at it as a $290K offer. Plain and simple. If you would take a $290K offer there's little reason not to take a $295K with $5K back. It is costing the seller nothing. That $5K in reality is now part of the buyers loan and they are financing the closing costs by doing it this way. Its not really a "sellers contribution"- it goes on the buyers loan. Now if a seller has two offers with the same effective price and one has "seller's contribution" you may decide the other buyer is stronger. The area where this can get risky with lost time and pressure is if you accept an offer "over" your asking price with a "sellers contribution". For example, your asking price is $300K and the buyer offers $305K with $5K back. The buyer in this case is trying to get the seller a full price offer but the risk you now run is that the property will not appraise at $305K and the buyers financing will either be turned down or you will have to reduce the price under duress.

In summary, if you receive an offer with the buyer asking for a "sellers contribution" don't reject it. Many buyers are fully qualified but are short on cash. This method, if done correctly, is legal and commonly used. Simply deduct the amount of the "sellers contribution" from the offered price and focus on that as the buyers true offer for your house. If they want to increase the price above your asking price to accomplish this talk long and hard with your agent about whether they think it will appraise successfully.

(4/25/07) Home sales: Worst drop in 18 years - And they blame it on the sub prime market. Well, don't you feel good reading this news here weeks before it happens?:) Still, I've been very busy, hence the lack of updates, so I have some advice for buyers and sellers. Sellers, call me if you are thinking of selling for a straight and honest opinion on where you stand and what you can expect. No sugar coating. Buyers! What are you waiting for? Don't think you are going to wait for the bottom because the only way you see the bottom is in your rear view mirror. As long as you don't plan to sell in a year or two you really should be making your move now. There's lots to choose from and you're in the drivers seat! You want to miss this?? I'll use a fishing analogy: They're catching plenty of 40lb cod these days out on Jeffries Ledge. You like and want cod. Now sometimes they catch 50 pounders out there too. Should you wait and see if the 50 pounders show up, risking missing all the great 40 pounders? And you may wind up with guppies! Ok maybe not the greatest analogy but you get the point. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(4/19/07) Fannie, Freddie to offer subprime help - Some helpful news for those with loans that are becoming a problem. Whether you've had interest rates jump on your ARM or your teaser rate is no longer teasing this could be very good news for you. If you are having problems making your payments don't sit on your tush and let the bad things happen. Get pro active! If you have no idea what to do or where to start call me for a confidential, free and no cost or obligation chat. I'll be more than happy to answer your questions and if needed put you in touch with a mortgage professional that is honest and ethical and has done a great job for past clients. I may sell houses for a living but I don't want to sell your house after you've lost it in a foreclosure! I like to help people to succeed! If I can save just one person's home that will give me a years worth of job satisfaction, believe me. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(4/16/07) Market signs suggest worst is over; sales gaining steam - Some encouraging signs from the market to the south of us. They note an uptick in sales volume compared to the previous year. That's all well and good but I want to know what the listed to sold ratio is! I'll see if I can find an agent licensed in Mass to run those numbers for me and I'll report them here. If they're getting below 2:1 I'll be encouraged also as our market in NH follows the market in MA. NH is still running 3:1 Stay tuned and stay dry! (from boston.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(4/14/07) Tighter lending standards will be good for housing but will dampen sales - Someone else saying what I've said previously- glad these people are jumping on the bandwagon as The National Association of Realtors (I am a member fyi) has a nice track record of sugar coating things IMHO (from realtor.org) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(4/13/07) Local numbers - Still not seeing what we need to see for a recovery. Inventory continues to increase. March to April numbers are looking like we'll see an almost 5% growth in the number of homes on the market. Listed Vs. sold ratio continues to be around 3 to 1. Prices are declining about .25% to .5% a month. Comparing this down turn to other markets we are at what "history" would predict should be the bottom but I'm going to need to see the listed vs. sold ratio come down before I start raising the banner. Boston actually reported an increase for condo prices of 7% so perhaps that's our first positive up tick for the region. Stay tuned!

(4/7/07) Six Steps to Avoiding Foreclosure - Sorry for going on and on on this depressing subject but there are a lot of people that could use this advise. I received 4 requests from lenders just today to do a pre-foreclosure market analysis on properties they have that are headed towards foreclosure and you've got to figure there's another 1000 or so agents working Southern NH that are getting requests on other properties. If you are behind, call me for some free advice and a bump in the right direction. DON'T loose your property to foreclosure! (from Yahoo.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(4/5/07) Tax-Friendly Places 2007 - New Hampshire is second best in total tax burden in the country! Only Alaska is better. They calculated this by using what residents pay in state and local income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, luxury taxes and fuel taxes, among others. It also factors in the portion of business taxes passed along to state residents through higher prices, lower wages or lower profits. So even though we have the second highest property taxes in the country our total tax burden blows other states out of the water! And tomorrow I'll post an article with some of my "out of the box" thinking telling you why its GOOD that we have such high property taxes (Hint: property taxes are the only ones we have democratic, local control of). (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(4/2/07) Your Home: 5 tips if you're in too deep - Here's some useful and sound advice. If I can add my own non sugar coated advice to this - Homeowners: don't use your home's equity as an ATM! Pulling some equity money out to replace your roof is one thing but doing it to take that Barbados vacation as mentioned in this article is NOT in your best interest. Believe me, I'm not one to advocate denying yourself life's pleasures but you are best off if you view your home and its equity as your nest egg for retirement. If you want that big vacation but cannot afford it then you probably are suffering from "beer budget and champagne taste" syndrome and need to adjust accordingly. Maybe you should take that seasonal night job at the Post office or UPS through the holidays and use that money for the nice vacation in February? Just a thought. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/27/07) Buyer's Remorse - Here's a real term real estate agents use. This affliction is caused by many things and this article talks about them a bit. Buyer's remorse is when a buyer(s) starts to second guess themselves and perhaps they start regretting a "buy" decision, either before the closing or shortly thereafter. I believe most cases of this are caused by buyers making an offer/buying a home without all of their questions answered. I personally work real hard at making sure all buyers I deal with, whether I am a seller's or a buyer's agent, have their "eyes wide open" going into the deal. My experience has taught me that avoiding buyer's remorse is key to a successful real estate deal. In successful real estate brokerage, we have a seller who wants to sell and a buyer who wants to buy: looking for the win/win avoids these types of issues and gets the job done for both sides. Now, of course, there's always those types that could get themselves a date with Charlize Theron or Brad Pitt (your choice:) and they would still be questioning if they were making the right decisions. For any of you that fit into this group- you don't need a good real estate agent- you should consider therapy and nice medications:) (from yahoo-finance.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/25/07) Existing-Home Sales Rise Again in February - I'm sure you saw a version of this story all over the news this week. Not to rain on anyone's parade but here's the non-sugar coated version. First, it is good news that sales rose comparing Feb06 to Feb07. Anything like that is good news. Buried in the news reports is that selling prices fell for the same period. No big surprise of course. What these articles fail to look at is what inventories are doing. We're still seeing a listed vs. sold ratio of around 3:1. If you look at the total number of homes for sale on the right you'll see its increasing (expected this time of year) and is back up to lvls from last December. The forecast that prices will slightly rise this year is nuts IMHO:) (from Realtor.org) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/22/07) Scary math: More homes, fewer buyers - Ok, I'll get off this sub-prime bandwagon as its boring me and must be boring you also now that all the "big kids" have caught on and are running stories on it. I don't want to beat the subject senseless but I will bring you some details from the hearings, as they happen, in Washington. Next week, I plan to start a series over the course of a week or so dissecting and explaining each clause in the standard Purchase and Sales Agreement that you will typically seen in NH. Whether you are a buyer or a seller it is a good idea to be familiar with this form before you make or receive and offer. Stay tuned. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/20/07) Find a deed online - If you are looking for a New Hampshire deed visit this site and you can look any deed in the state up. All you need is either the owner's name or the actual book/page number. They don't allow you to print without paying a ridiculous fee of $1 per page (to print it at your home!) but if you have a screen capture program you perhaps could get around that. If you need a hard copy of a deed let me know and I can get that for you through one of the local title companies that provide them to us at no charge. If you can't find a deed feel free to send me the name and address and I can look up the book/page numbers for you thru a subscription site I belong to. Most deeds just have a description of the lot but some, especially if its a newer sub-division, have a reference to a Plan #. You can enter that plan # on the search page and a copy of the plan will appear. Same deal with the printing but a screen capture program should work. If you want a hard copy of the plan your best bet for that is to go directly to the appropriate Registry of Deeds and get a copy there. Enjoy. Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/18/07) Popular dog, cat food recalled after kidney failure, deaths - Not on subject but as some of you know I am a bit of a pet lover so I thought I should post this. Hope no one has a problem with this but if you have a cat or a dog pay attention! (and yes if something like this was out there for people I'd post it also!) (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/15/07) Good Ole Barney Frank takes the bait! -Remember my congressional hearings prediction on the sub-prime debacle? Mass congressmen Barney boy announced hearings at the end of the month on the subject! Watch the lenders crank back on their qualification criteria in the weeks before that! Then they will fall on their swords at the hearings and show all the wonderful things they have done and congress will do nothing but spend our money on more hearings. Now I'm not advocating congress should do anything. They shouldn't. Those clowns would only mess things up even worse.

(3/15/07) Why we still need sub-prime loans -There was an article today in the Boston Globe that talked about this but I can't find it online so I'll summarize it here and add my own thoughts. Sub-prime loans may be what all the hoopla is all about but the number I'm hearing is in the range of only 8-10% of these loans are in default. Now that's huge from a business sense but that also says there's 90% of borrowers who are not in default and if they did not get a sub-prime loan they'd only be in danger of not paying their rent! My point being that we should not eliminate the 90% of buyers, who don't get in over their heads, from future home buying for so many reasons. First, for the economy - fortunately the housing slowdown has not really hit the economy yet. But, with all this stuff going on, its starting to tickle it. Pulling the plug on sub-prime loans would be a disaster. Hopefully someone with some brains is called to testify at these hearings; someone that sees the big picture and is not going to be part of the mortgage industries smoke and mirror show. (Anyone remember the Billy Bulger hearings and radio talk show host Howie Carr sitting in the background making funny faces every time Bulger spoke? I feel like I should get down to Washington to play that role for this coming silliness!) Ok, the other reason not to eliminate these types of programs is simply to not cut off some people from their dreams. As I said, 90% of these loans are not in default and those buyers got their chance and this years, and next years buyers deserve the same chance. What needs to be done is they need to look closely at those that have defaulted and figure out what could have been done to prevent them from getting in over their heads. Then we tweak the qualification criteria as need to target eliminating the 8-10% that is the problem. My guess is we need some tweaks like this: 1) Some system that does not simply look at a credit score for sub-prime borrowers but a method that looks at what direction they are heading. Let's say someone had a 680 score but they fell to 580 for some reason. A downward trend should be a warning sign you would think?? And someone that was 540 but is now 580 in my mind would be a better risk as they are on the right track. And completely removing medical collections from credit reports should also be done! Its the moral and right thing to do. 2) Probably the only thing Congress could do is get this mysterious credit score thing under control! "Yes your credit score is critical but we're not going to tell you how its calculated because you might cheat" say the lenders and companies that create these things. Ummm...If I did exactly what you wanted me to do to have a great credit score HOW COULD THAT BE CHEATING?!? This whole thing sounds like a bad marriage. "You do things that drive me crazy but I'm not going to tell you what they are!" Duh. 3) People need to have SOME money in reserves after closing. No money down is one thing, no money in the bank after closing is another! I've been at closings where the buyers joked about having only a couple of hundred dollars left in the bank! That's just nuts! They're starting out living from pay check to pay check and things break in houses! I just paid someone $280 buckaroos to clean tree roots out of the sewer line servicing my house. I've seen people close on their house without enough money to handle that nasty little inconvenience! No more "No Money in the Bank" needed type loans. 3) Variable loans: these nasty little things are time bombs waiting to happen. If you qualify for a variable loan you should continue to be able to qualify for the payment at the time of the loan but then you should also have to prove a pretty solid plan for how you will qualify for the payments when they jump in 2 years! If you are in medical school and will graduate next year and can plan for a huge increase in your income that's fine but if you are Joe Unionboy and you can expect a 3% pay raise but your monthly payment will jump 20% why the hell are they giving you this loan to start with? This makes no sense and needs to change. Well.....I'll be waiting for my invitation from congress:)

(3/14/07) Lehman sees more subprime woes-Well here's a nice attempt by some Wall Street "Spin Meister" to say "ya but not us". Well that may be the case. We'll see. If you check ml-implode.com they've put a note up saying Countrywide (the nation's largest lender) is going to announce their numbers have been hit by subprime defaults and that layoffs will happen. I'm sure you've been seeing and hearing this stuff all over the news in the past few days. I hit that prediction right on the head, didn't I? (smug smug:). Next will come the congressional hearings and the mortgage companies making BIG announcements about how they are going to fix this themselves to get congress off their case. I think I'm going to put that "crow dinner" in the freezer as I don't think I'll be eating it on this one. My advice still holds: if you are a buyer make your move now, especially if you are in a 100% program and have credit below 640. If you are a seller and your agent presents you with an offer make sure that your buyer's pre-approval is not just one done over the phone but that they have been "run thru the system" and that their lender will honor that pre-approval up to the closing date. CBS ran a story last night about some buyers that had their pre-approval yanked because the terms changed. The lenders I have spoken to say they will honor any pre-approvals that have been processed but not necessarily the over the phone ones. So sellers, if you are not yet listed don't you think you need to talk to an agent that is all over this?:) (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/12/07) Miss a payment? -Well.... I thought I'd share a piece of my own stupidity with you today to perhaps help someone else out and you're supposed to spill your guts on these blogs anyway, right? Well, this, hopefully, was a once in a lifetime error for me but here goes.... After a lifetime of perfect credit with never a late payment, never mind a 30 day late, I goofed up after a refinance and thought I had paid a particular loan off. When I got the monthly statement I figured it was just the lender being slow on their pay off updating, and did not pay it. Today I get the nastygram in the mail saying I'm 30 days late! I called them immediately and arranged to pay by check over the phone. Late is never good my friends, but a 30 day late will get reported to the credit bureaus and whack your credit for 2 years. If its on a home loan it will also preclude you from getting a conventional home loan for 2 years and force you into that expensive sub-prime market that I've been talking about. When I realized what I had done I've got to tell you I was devastated. I had my first credit card at 18, then car and then many home and investment loans, I have NEVER been late ever. Hell, I even paid off my student loans on time! While I was searching for the razor blades to slice my wrists I put a call into my trusty mortgage broker and asked her about what I had done. She advised I call their collections department and tell them the story explaining that this was not for a lack of funds but just a mistake and to point out my perfect credit history with them and everyone else. I called. After getting some resistance from them I kept politely at it (basically falling on my sword and begging and groveling) and the lender then agreed "that because of my excellent history they will extend a one time courtesy" and remove this late payment from my credit report. They emphasized "one time" several times which is fair. So....the moral of the story is if you have a great credit history and shoot yourself in the foot like I did call your lender and beg forgiveness.

(3/9/07) Mortgage Lender "Implode-O-Meter"! -In the understated words of Donald Rumsfeld - "Oh my". Here's a web site that follows what I have been talking about with the mortgage business and tracks companies that have "imploded" and those that may be in trouble. I have NO IDEA as to the accuracy of this site so take it like you should anything on the web - verify verify. Still, "Oh my". Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/7/07) Slowing economy drags down mortgage rates - Well I don't want to look to a bad economy for good news but lower interest rates are a nice thing. Another reason for buyers sitting on the fence to think hard about making your move now. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/6/07) Bernanke: Fannie, Freddie threaten economy - Get ready for the hammer to fall folks! That's the Fed Chairman (The guy that replaced Greenspan) saying the two "quasi government agencies", Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who are the largest suppliers of money for home loans, are in danger of crashing the economy! And with all the news the past few months of sub-prime loan companies going belly up, lending rules tightening and a huge rise in foreclosures, you're going to see some posturing and adjusting that's going cause some buyers to leave the market for lack of financing and others that are going to see some of their buying power evaporate! I spoke with a couple of mortgage brokers and one person in the "wholesale" end of the mortgage business today and they all concur with me. And with too much inventory and too few buyers this mortgage market correction is going to put a grinding halt to any potential recovery of the real estate market locally IMHO. Those of you that follow this site know that I'm pretty conservative about making predictions but I see this as a potential train wreck coming in the mortgage business. Here's the facts:

Before Bernake spoke today lenders have been quietly tightening up their guidelines on not just sub prime loans but also on 100% financing programs. I've been doing a lot market analysis work for lenders this year and I can tell you the vast majority of loans I see in trouble are ones that had 100% financing. Usually adjustable. So, lenders have quietly adjusted minimum credit scores on these types of loans. Typically, where you used to need a 580 credit score (and that's pretty bad), you now need a 600, and others that needed a 600 now need a 620. This is going to leave some people out of the market.

My forecast is that the lending business is not interested in having the feds come in and handle this crisis for them. I predict we are going to see some pretty drastic changes in lending criteria done voluntarily buy lenders in the hope that a big "smoke and mirror " show in the press will get the feds to back off. Then they will slowly loosen some of the criteria but I'm guessing the days of someone with a 580 credit score getting a 100% loan are just about over for the near term.

Based upon my experience with buyers and what the people in the business I spoke with today have said we can see anywhere from 20-50% of buyers either no longer qualifying or having their buying power reduced, either through higher interest rates or tighter qualifying criteria. Again, I want to qualify this with my statement that I don't cry "the sky is falling" ever, and I'm not here, but I think you're going to see this line of thought all over the press in the coming days and weeks and some are going to make it sound like "Chicken Little Rides Again!".

So...what should a buyer do? Make a decision now if you do not have good credit and have a 100% loan. Its not going to get better and you may find yourself not qualified. If you have a simple "pre-qual" and have not been "run through the system" by your lender for a full approval you may find yourself outside looking in. Call your lender and ask them if there is any chance your approval may not be good in the near future. There's plenty of homes to choose from and IMHO you are always better in a house you can afford than in a rental paying someone else's mortgage.

Sellers? Don't wait for the spring for all the other reasons I have said in the past and now for this reason. Get priced correctly, get with an agent that knows how to market homes, and get it done. It may not be the perfect time to sell but its a great time to buy so unless you are planning to sell and leave the area now is the time to upgrade, downsize etc as you'll make back on the buying side more than you give up on the selling. If you have to sell and have no choice, call me for a market analysis and a presentation on a marketing program that is designed to get you maximum price in minimum time. Choosing the right agent is the most important decision you will ever make, now more than ever! Like I do on this site, I'll give you the "un-sugarcoated" truth so you can make the best decisions for yourself. OK .....I don't think I'm going to have to but I'll announce my "eating crow" dinner in a few weeks if needed. In the meantime, when you hear Wolf Blitzer reading what sounds like my blog remember you heard it here first and send your friends a link to this site!

(3/5/07) Existing Home Sales Rise But New Home Sales Take Sizable Hit - Its interesting to watch how these stories get reported around the country. The National Association of Realtors released their data and their sugar coated version of the numbers last week and the Associated Press builds a story off of that. Then news organizations around the country have headlines ranging from "Existing Home Sales Best in Years!" to others saying "Prices drop 3% in January!" All based upon the same sales data! Our local coverage has been slanted towards to cheerful side. My take on it is this; January is historically the worse month of the year for sales anyway. Having a year to year improvement in the worse month is ok but I wouldn't say its boom times again. If you read this site regularly you know that I've been saying mixed news should indicate the bottom of the market. The key number that is not improving is the listed vs. sold data. For February 2.5 new homes came on the market for every 1 sold. That's the number we need to see come down. There have been a large number of listings expiring and not re-listing and that has kept the total number of homes on the market flat, which is a good thing. My gut tells me a lot of sellers are waiting for the spring to re-list and we may see a bunch of new listings hit in April and May. (from mortgagenewsdaily.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(3/1/07) Top five industries the internet has killed - Ok I'm not going to beat this one senseless and promise this is the last 'edjukational' piece on open houses but here's another article that touches on their demise in real estate. I guess my secret is out and everyone is realizing this. I've been advising on this for 2 years now. See? You need to hire an agent like me that is ahead of the curve on what works and what does not:) (from 25hoursaday.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/28/07) Housing market on mend? - Numbers looked better in January for the Mass. market. That's good but we need to see a few months of this to declare that we've hit bottom. I'll post an article tomorrow on my overall take on where we are and where we are going regarding the New Hampshire market. (from boston.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/26/07) Home buying: Buy now? Or wait for a price drop? - Ok here's your latest news on Britney's lack of hair and Anna Nicole's corpse! Opps sorry wrong blog! Here's some sound sage on if you should wait or not to buy a home:) Sorry could not resist! (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/25/07) Shifting Housing Market Snubs Bad Credit - Watching your credit is always important but now more than ever. With property values declining in many areas lenders are not so willing to take the risk of lending to someone with not so great credit. Read on. (from cbsnews.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/23/07) Open houses: New Construction and "Broker only" - Ok, to finish what I started below: Open houses still work for new construction simply because you are not selling a single product but many products. By that I mean a buyer has a choice of lots, house styles, colors, kitchens, etc. It makes sense for a buyer to come to a new construction open house to make choices that can't be made online. Seeing the builder's work and even meeting the builder is key for buyers making a decision.

Broker open house: (here's where I may ruffle a few feathers amongst my peers-not intended-just being honest again) This is when an agent, usually when they get a new listing, hosts an open house, usually during the week (typically on a Tuesday, a day most offices have weekly meetings) where other agents can come and view their listing to keep it in mind for any current or future buyers they may have. Sounds like an ok concept right? Well here's the thing- when I started in the business I would go and drive around to as many of these as I could (as in I had no customers and plenty of time) and the thing I noticed was that I kept seeing the same agents at these events week after week. It quickly became apparent to me that for the most part I was not seeing top performing agents at these events and after thinking about it, as I started to get busy, it occurred to me that an agent with a busy schedule should be out showing houses WITH their clients as that's where we make our living. And in a market like this with dozens of new homes coming on the market in any given area weekly its not practical to drive around and see them. AND, with the good ole internet, if an agent does their job and gets the multi photos into the MLS, I can keep myself up to date with a few clicks. So.....Broker Open houses fall into that category of doing what looks good for your seller, as opposed to what works.

(2/22/07) Is an open house a waste of time? - Well, here's one of those subjects where the truth can be a burden for a real estate agent. (The exception to what follows is new construction which I'll get to last). As noted in the article linked below, study after survey after study shows that home sellers want open houses because they think that they are an important part of selling the selling process. First I'll talk about public open houses (broker open houses are a whole other subject). The conventional wisdom in the real estate community is to "DO" open houses because your seller will see you are doing "something". This has some merit in that much of what an agent does is out of sight of the seller. An open house gives you some 'visibility and face time'. And, in general, its good business to give your customers what they want. Hence, most agencies encourage their agents to "do" open houses. I'll do as many open houses as my clients want but only first after educating them with the truth and facts. The truth is, open houses "rarely" sell a home. In fact, more homes are sold by yard signs than open houses! What open houses do is that they help an agent get a buyer contact for future business. That's the plain 'ole' truth.

Before the internet the concept of an open house was much more valid. Now, with multiple photos online and ease of home searching through the internet, open houses are becoming less and less relevant (even for their time honored role of getting an agent more customers) and its a common lament made by agents hosting open houses these days that "no one showed up".

And while its not been a big issue here in New Hampshire I've always been uncomfortable with the security issue. With regularly scheduled showings by appointments an agent usually has one person or family to show the home to and you stay with them for the duration of the showing. They have that buyers name and at least a phone number. With an open house its just that...open. You could have multiple groups in different rooms and I can't say that someone may not check out your medicine cabinet or other places they should not be. I always present this possibility to my sellers before we mutually agree to do an open house. At a minimum if you have an open house you should remove items of value.

All that said, you'll see me still doing open houses from time to time and as I'm willing to try all the marketing possible to get my clients home sold. I just want to do so with all the cards on the table first so my clients can make informed decisions for themselves. Tomorrow I'll talk about new construction open houses and why they still work and then why the "broker" open houses concept drives me nuts!

(2/19/07) Homebuilder confidence jumps - There's a headline I did not expect for February! Read on and lets hear 3 cheers for good news! (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/19/07) Real estate flipper stung by slow market - Here's a cautionary tale. With all these TV programs showing people making money flipping real estate, agents are seeing more and more people wanting to do this. That's OK and I love working with "flippers" as it results in 2 sales for me. However, I don't want to see anyone taking a bath with this business model and the TV programs tend to not show the dark side of this subject. Still, if you are doing this or are thinking of doing it I'd be happy to chat with you about it in and honest and non sugar coated manner. (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/16/07) Largest Home Price Drop on Record - If you follow this site this just confirms what I have been saying through 4th Qtr. 2006 and this year. 4th Qtr. 2006 was brutal. (from safehaven.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/15/07) Pediatrician cited for "no kids" rental - Another Fair Housing violation! Geez Louise will this real estate company try TRAINING their agents? I don't know the specifics on this case but it would be interesting to know the experience level of the agents involved. Still, I've seen and heard some "whoppers" from 20+ year vets who have just been doing it wrong for 20 years so who knows. (from app.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/11/07) Existing U.S. home sales said to improve - Here's one forecasting some growth in sales in 2007 and 2008. I'll try to focus on these types of articles this week as this subject is the one I'm most asked about. (from UPI.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/8/07) Some thoughts on the numbers -

(2/6/07) Real estate agency accused of racist business practices -Those that follow this site regularly will remember the piece I did last month about the Fair Housing Act, the Fair Housing symbol and what the act means. Here's an article about an agency that apparently does not get it. It amazes me to read this simply because of all the exposure this issue gets in the real estate community thru mandatory courses required by either or both the state real estate commission or Realtor's ethics training. This article talks about HUD sending out "testers" to real estate offices and looking for these types of violations in this case. Often a complaint from a buyer will precede sending out the "testers". What they found here is called "steering" where you attempt to "steer" a member of a protected group either to or away from a certain town, area or neighborhood based upon their protected class. Its not only illegal, it is dumb and morally bankrupt. It is not our choice where a potential buyer should live. It should always be the buyers. Its also the law. (from sourcenewspapers.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/3/07) 2006 home sales in NH down 19 percent - Here's a local article on the last years sales. I'll take issue with the number saying Hillsboro and Rockingham County sales prices only dropped less than 2%. I'm going to check into the source of these numbers as my numbers are much higher. We could be debating "mean" vs. "median" averages. I'll update later next week. This data may be the sugar coated version. Still, good info with another prediction of a rebound. I'm sticking to my rebound predictions also but I have not seen any data yet to support its actually going to happening this spring. Sales still lag listings with 2 new listings for every sale and that's the BIG number that has to change. Also, they note that last year was the "3rd strongest" year on record but IMHO (or IMNSHO = In my not so humble opinion!) that is more sugar coating. We have the highest population ever so it makes sense we'd have more home sales than, say 1960, when the population was lower. From my perspective, with our population growth, if each year does not exceed the previous year that's a bad thing. (from The Union Leader) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(2/1/07) Your dishwasher may burn your house down! -There's been a recall of over 2 million dishwashers made by Maytag and Jenn-air. They were sold from July 1997 through June 2001. Follow the link to see if your model and serial number is affected. Do this now as I do not want to be selling the vacant land your heirs inherit after your house burns down! (from cpsc.gov) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/29/07) 5 homeownership tax myths - Good info to separate fact from fiction. (from bankrate.com.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/29/07) Small projects that pay off big - 5 small upgrades to help you sell your home. I like the statement they make saying "If you're going to put money into a home, you should start in the rooms with running water". (from cnn.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/25/07) Existing Home Sales Plummet in 2006 - Well if you follow this site this will be of no surprise to you. Later in the article the author states that there will be a slow recovery this year. I believe that too but I'm not seeing any numbers indicating that is happening...yet. Stay tuned! (from and AP story in the Orlando Sentinel) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/21/07) 10 Things That Make Buyers Bite - I've posted links to articles like this before but I like this one a lot. In particular I like that it starts out with "A Nice Entryway". When I work with sellers to stage their home the FIRST item to work on is what will the buyers first impression be. Its critical and I don't think the web sites and articles on this subject focus enough on the entry. Does a buyer walk into a clutter or have to step around furniture upon entry? (If they do the first impression is SMALL!) Do they get assaulted with a view of different rooms with many different colors? That first impression really sets the tone of the rest of the showing. I've seen it time and time again. So..... work on that entry way. (from hgtv.com) Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/20/07) Updated stats - to the right. Number of homes on the market remains flat. Really would like to see this number drop some. Listed vs sold for 2006 compared to 2005 was the big news. In 2005 basically every home that came on the market sold (ratio was 1.1 to 1) whereas in 2006 for every 2 homes that came on the market only 1 sold. That's the number we need to see start coming down this spring.

(1/17/07) What is this symbol - I'm sure you've seen it in advertising (and on this site) and wondered what it was all about. It is stating that the advertiser fully supports and follows the Fair Housing Act and subsequent laws enforced by HUD and state agencies for fair housing. The short version is that it is a federal crime to discriminate in the sale or rental of housing based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status or handicap. In addition New Hampshire has a state law adding sexual orientation to these protected classes.

While it is a complex subject here's a short summary; No one may take any of the following actions against a protected class according to HUD.
* Refuse to rent or sell housing
* Refuse to negotiate for housing
* Make housing unavailable
* Deny a dwelling
* Set different terms, conditions or privileges for sale or rental of a dwelling
* Provide different housing services or facilities
* Falsely deny that housing is available for inspection, sale, or rental
* For profit, persuade owners to sell or rent (blockbusting) or
* Deny anyone access to or membership in a facility or service (such as a multiple listing service) related to the sale or rental of housing.
For more information see the HUD web site link below.

Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/17/07) New England Oil - Here's a helpful site I came across that should be of use to anyone with oil heat. This site tracks heating oil prices through out New England and is updated once a week. The owner of the site spent some time on the phone with me explaining the way the market works but here's the short version. You see prices changing less often the farther away you get from a depot that sells to the dealers. So if you follow this site even though most companies update it weekly you'll see prices near the coast changing frequently but west of Nashua less frequently. Nothing is available like this for Propane but may be soon. Stay tuned. Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/13/07) Mortgage rates drop - Good news all around. I added a spot to the right for the weekly mortgage rate from Freddie Mac. They survey lenders by region and publish the data weekly. You can look at it quickly on this page but if you want details on other types of loans follow this link. And remember, don't become a slave to the "rate chase". Some lenders advertise rates that aren't real or are full of land mines. There's closing costs, terms of the loan and service provided. Make sure you are comparing apples to apples. Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/13/07) Mortgage applications soar in first week of '07 - Some more good news for sellers. Buyers getting ready to buy! Good news for buyers also as rates have dropped. - from cnn.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/12/07)Dec 05 compared to Dec 06 - Check out the data I posted in the "Sales Data" section. In short, Belknap county saw a sharp price drop of about 20%! No science behind what I'm about to type but my 'gut' on this is not that prices of existing homes have fallen that far but it more reflects a change in what builders are building in this market i.e. no more building "McMansions" and instead building smaller, cheaper homes that sell. Cheshire county was basically flat. Hillsboro County had a price drop of about 10% and again I'm feeling that some of that reflects building trend changes. Of bigger note is that sales volume was down 30%! Merrimack County was flat. Rockingham County was down 10% in price and 15% in volume. Strafford was down about 10%.

(1/10/07) A few thoughts - If you have been following the "Daily Snapshot" to the right you've noticed the ratio of listed to sold has been well above 2 to 1 so far this year. I'm sticking with my belief that its because of people that had taken their properties off the market for the holidays putting them back on now. We need to see this ratio come down in the coming weeks for a recovery to arrive in the spring. That's my read on it anyway. Stay tuned.

(1/7/07!) Pending home sales fall - Small drop in pending home sales nationwide in November. It will be interesting to see what they come up with for December when those numbers are in next week. - from cnn.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/5/07) Here's a peek at some new sales info! I'm still crunching the numbers for 2006 and making the graphs so hang in there a few more days. I have some preliminary info to share with you. Total sales volume looks to be down almost 25%. Prices down about 3 to 5% depending on your area. Most telling is that you should get ready for a BIG news blast in February about home sales slumping in January! How can I make that prediction? I'm still looking at the other counties but try this on for size; in December 2005 there were 183 homes in Hillsboro county that went under agreement. In December 2006 there were only 49 that went pending! Huge drop. Since homes typically close in 30-45 days I'm predicting that we're not going to see many closings in January. Some newspapers may take that story and run with it as a big surprise so remember you heard it here first! My take on it is that it was expected and should be our last bad month and that it's going to stabilize and slowly ramp up come spring or summer. More data to come soon. Check back!

(1/4/07!) Scores of mortgage borrowers left in lurch! - This has been the big buzz since the end of last week. A large supplier of loans for the mortgage business apparently went belly up last week, surprising many. All over the country buyers went to closings only to find out the company underwriting their loan was not sending any money or answering the phone! This is not some fly by night operation either. These clowns did over $12 billion in loans last year so this is not chump change. Apparently 85% of their business was in the "wholesale" end of the business and 15% was direct lending. They closed their wholesale operation but still have their retail operation running! Hmmm, should someone do business with that bunch?? Apparently they were heavy on "sub-prime" loans, meaning risky ones with buyers with not so hot credit, etc. There's been a lot of foreclosures on these type of properties this past year and I would say to expect more of these types of lenders to run into trouble. What can a buyer or seller do in this situation? Sellers, understand its not your buyers fault. Both parties should work on new terms for the closing and the buyer should talk to their originating lender (its not their fault either) and get new financing. A good one should be able to pull it off within 2 or 3 weeks. - from Boston.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/2/07!) Consumer confidence, home sales both rise - Some more good news; more or less. As a caution though, watch out for Jan 07 closings as my gut tells me its going to be gruesome. Basic observations and chatter with other agents indicates very few properties went under agreement in December 06 which means January may look ugly. After that things should start ramping up so if you're a buyer now's the time to make your move! - from jsonline.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(1/2/07!) Office Tightens in Boston's Northwest Suburbs - This can only be a positive for the New Hampshire residential Market. If companies are fleeing the crime infested traffic congested (sounds like a rap doesn't it?) dump called Boston and moving north that means jobs are coming the same direction and people that previously did not want to commute all the way from Boston to NH may be looking in our area soon. Can you believe it only took 6 hours for the New Year to record its first tragic loss of a 14 year old to gun fire? Sigh - from Globestreet Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/29/06) Scraping by on $150,000 a year! - I'm sure your first reaction was like mine - awwwww.... my heart bleeds! But read this one. Its not directly related to homeownership and you may or may not be in the $150K range, whether its above or below that. Still, I often see good people in trouble like this family. Many people live on the edge of their income, even people with strong and significant 6 figure incomes, only to be devastated when that income drops from a layoff or illness. Just because lenders will give folks with good credit more than enough money to hang themselves with it doesn't mean you should merrily go walking to the gallows with them. I would rather not have to help you sell your home when you are under duress (though if you need me call me- I am good at this stuff:); I would much rather help you sell when you are making a wise choice for yourself. Read this article. If you are in a situation like this where you have no clue about where your money goes each month you are a disaster waiting to happen! Here's my simple tip: I learned this one years ago and I still try to do it once a year. I can't tell you how much this has helped me and my wife get a solid handle on our finances over the years. If you don't understand them you can't control them. Every member of your family has to carry a notebook with them and account for EVERY penny they spend for one full month. Everything. At the end of the month if you have a program such as Quicken, use that, or make a simple Excel spreadsheet or just compile the lists by hand. You are going to be stunned. Whether its movies, cigarettes, beer, books, shopping etc. you will learn a great deal about your spending and will immediately see ways to save. Also compare that to your income for the month. Close? Not good. If you have little or no money saved for those inevitable bumps in life's road you're an accident waiting to happen. So....read on, get a handle on your money and call me when you need to but lets hope you call me next because you are going to upsize, downsize or buy a vacation property because you CHOOSE to. - from cnnmoney.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/28/06) Nov. Home Sales Inch Up, but Prices Fall - Well.... more mixed news but here's the thing! This one has the good news for sellers regarding sales increasing and inventories decreasing. Also good news for buyers of a 3.1% drop in median prices from Nov 05 to Nov 06. And dueling opinions from economists: one says we hit bottom in September and the other says not until 1st qtr 2007. The "dueling economist's" opinions on where bottom is are continuing to get closer to each other so that's a good indication of things heading back to normal soon. - from topix.net Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/26/06) Mortgage rates up for 2nd straight week - Up but.... lets put it in perspective. A 30yr loan can still be had for around 6.1%. If you go with a 15 year (and trust me all ye young ones, get a 15 year if you can afford it! Its the way to go) you can probably find a rate below 6% and trust me this is said by someone that is old enough to remember dbl digit loans from the good ole Jimmy Carter years! - from cnnmoney.com.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/22/06) Flippers still profit in real estate slowdown - Here's a level headed article about "Flipping". - from Inman.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/21/06) Congress gives some home owners a year end gift! Someone slipped in a new tax break recently. Starting in 2007 homeowners with PMI get to deduct it with some exceptions. PMI is a mortgage insurance you have to get on most loans where you put less than 20% down when you purchase. You pay this "insurance" as a monthly fee for your lender to protect them in case you default. Look at your monthly statement if you are not sure if you are paying this or not. It applies to new loans for households making less than $100,000 per year. As with all tax stuff talk to your tax professional for the details. And, speaking of PMI - do you know you can have that fee removed once you have 20% equity in your home? If you bought your home in 2003 or before there has been enough appreciation in the market where you can most likely get this monthly fee removed. Check with your lender. Also, if you'd like to fill out the "Market Analysis" form by clicking on the button to the upper right I can give you a pretty good idea if this makes sense for you. Your lender may require that you pay to have an appraisal done to prove value to them. If they do, give me a call, and I can work with you to help you make the best decision on whether you should have enough equity in your home to invest the $300-$400 its going to cost you for an appraisal. Any help I provide for this is at no charge. I'll just ask you to tell everyone you know about this great blog:)

(12/20/06) New data added! Added last weeks sales as well as updated FILS and FILES numbers. Short version for the new viewers of this site (the hits have been going up and up so please keep sending a link to this site to your friends, family and pets!) FILS is a number showing a ratio of new listings vs. sold listings. Selling more than is listed is a good thing from a sellers perspective. FILES is a ratio of listed vs expired listings, an indicator of how many listings are falling out of the market and can't be sold. A higher ratio is bad for sellers. Think of the FILS as a short term indicator of where the market is going and the FILES as a long term indicator. I update those stats weekly on the bottom right column of this page. Also there you will find the total number of homes for sale in Southern NH. As this market has been suffering from an excess of inventory the dropping of listings is another indicator the market may be bottoming out and poising for an upswing in 2007. Stay tuned as I'll be going way out on a limb and making a forecast for next year by New Years! The list of last weeks sales is broken down by county and is like that list you may see in your local newspaper of what sold last week. I also include a small photo of each home and its broken down by counties. Click on the "Sales Data" button to the right to view. (Note- that sales data is public information by law. You see it in newspapers etc. That said, any homeowner that sees there info published here can have it promptly removed by sending me a polite note. A non polite note will still get it removed also but what's the point:)

(12/18/06) Housing starts rebound, but ... - new construction permits hit a 9 year low. Good news in one sense (if you are not a builder) as excessive inventory is the problem with this market right now for sellers. From cnn.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/17/06) Real estate sweetener - a Glock! - This story is just plain funny and weird. First its reported in "The Australian". Second its about a real estate agent in Texas that is offering a buyer incentive of a gun if you buy a home from her! Only in Texas! For the record incentives of monetary value in exchange for doing business with a real estate agent are not allowed in NH. A seller can offer incentives, the agent cannot. There's a company that has been advertising in Mass saying "buy a house from us and we'll give you part of our commission". Heard that one? Can't do that in NH as its illegal for commission money to go to anyone unlicensed. - from theaustralian.news.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/17/06) Track the decline in the real estate market - From a Dover NH news site. Interesting points raised in this article. First, they say that The New England Economic Partnership predicts homes prices thru 2010 will rise an average of 1.2% per year. They talk about the need for towns to keep taxes in check but that thought got me thinking: with prices falling are we really going to see towns doing reassessments that reflect lower home values? And if that happens we're going to see tax rates increase to handle the shortfall. All that said folks whether its an increasing or declining market be sure you pay attention to your local elections and government. We need to keep these people on a short fiscal leash! Don't let these people come up from our neighbor to the south and start screaming about needing more traffic lights and other services! Keeping our position as one of the states with the lowest total tax burden means doing without some things. I'm fine with that. Its why I moved here in 1987 from the over crowded, taxed to death, crime plagued state to the south:) - from www.fosters.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/13/06) Mortgage applications rise, rates back up - Another sign that buyers are starting to come back into the market. It doesn't mean homes are going to start "flying off the shelves" yet but it's another indicator that we have hit bottom. - from cnn.com Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/11/06) Existing-Home Sales to Trend Upward in 2007 - Forecast from their Chief Economist. Short version is now into spring is a good time to buy. Existing homes sales should rise slightly next year while new construction will drop some - another good sign its time to buy as builders may negotiate, unlike in the past. Also of note is a prediction that interest rates will creep up into the upper 6% range- they are in the low 6% range now - from Realtor.org Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/07/06) Forecast Predicts Lower Rates Next Year - Rates have been pretty good so far this year so lower next year is even better!- from Realtor.org Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/07/06) Pending Home Sales Indicate Market Stabilization - This is an article looking at pending sales activity for the entire country. - from Realtor.org Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/07/06) Arsenic in Well Water - Arsenic has always been present in some degree or other in our wells but is becoming more of an issue as testing costs come down and more information is learned. This is really similar to Radon issues where a buyer needs review all the facts to make their best decisions. Most home inspectors are now recommending this test in addition to the standard well water tests. I've seen prices for the test as low as $45. A system is available to remove arsenic from drinking water and costs about $4500. - from the New Hampshire Dept. of Environmental Services. Click here (this link will open a new window- if it does not work right click and select "Open in a new window")

(12/04/06)Added new data today - Added the updated FILS and FILES numbers to the right. Also added last weeks sales for each county in the "Sa